Key Takeaways
- Polymarket has opened negotiations with the CFTC to restore full US market access following its 2022 regulatory ban
- The platform’s current US beta version restricts users to sports betting and maintains an extensive waitlist
- CFTC Chairman Michael Selig holds singular authority as four commission positions remain unfilled
- Federal prosecutors recently indicted a US Army service member for leveraging classified information to profit $400,000+ on Polymarket
- Competitor Kalshi has achieved a $22 billion market cap while maintaining full regulatory compliance
The global leader in prediction markets, Polymarket, is mounting an effort to restore its complete platform to United States users. The organization has entered substantive negotiations with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission regarding the removal of restrictions that have blocked American participants from its primary marketplace for nearly three years.
Bloomberg first broke the story of these ongoing discussions. The development follows an extended period during which Polymarket has functioned from overseas locations while cultivating an enormous international customer base.
Shayne Coplan established Polymarket in June 2020. The service allows participants to purchase positions predicting the outcomes of future occurrences, utilizing blockchain infrastructure developed on the Polygon network.
The CFTC launched an inquiry into Polymarket operations during late 2021. Agency investigators determined the service had functioned as an unregistered venue for event-based binary options contracts from its inception. By January 2022, regulators imposed a $1.4 million financial sanction on Polymarket and prohibited the platform from serving American customers.
Current US Operations Remain Restricted
The organization attempted market re-entry through a $112 million acquisition of QCEX, a CFTC-registered derivatives trading venue, completed in July 2025. Polymarket launched a beta US platform toward the conclusion of 2025.
This beta offering faces significant constraints. Access remains restricted to sports-related markets, with hundreds of thousands of potential users stuck on a waiting list for platform entry.
The service’s most sought-after market segments—political forecasting and macroeconomic events—remain unavailable to US participants. Management has announced intentions to expand into climate, cryptocurrency, and electoral prediction markets without specifying implementation dates.
In contrast, US-based competitor Kalshi has maintained regulatory compliance throughout its existence. Kalshi has established partnerships with both Robinhood and Coinbase, achieving a $22 billion corporate valuation as of March.
Polymarket is reportedly pursuing a $15 billion valuation. By October 2025, global trading volume on the platform exceeded $3 billion monthly.
Intercontinental Exchange, which owns the New York Stock Exchange, pledged up to $2 billion in funding during that period while assigning Polymarket an $8 billion valuation.
Regulatory Authority Concentrated in Single Position
Modifying Polymarket’s regulatory standing requires an official commission vote. However, with four CFTC commissioner positions currently vacant, Chairman Michael Selig exercises de facto unilateral control.
Selig has demonstrated receptiveness to the concept. During April 16 testimony before the House Agriculture Committee, he stated the agency’s objective to repatriate offshore trading liquidity under appropriate regulatory frameworks.
Proposed solutions under consideration include integrating the offshore platform’s blockchain infrastructure with the domestic exchange or fully consolidating operations onto the US-licensed venue. Both pathways would necessitate substantial organizational transformation.
Opposition exists to these plans. A coalition of House Democrats sent correspondence to Selig during the previous month demanding stricter enforcement against offshore prediction market operators. Their letter highlighted insider trading risks and national security vulnerabilities.
These apprehensions gained credibility last week. Federal prosecutors charged a US Army service member with exploiting classified military intelligence to generate profits exceeding $400,000 through wagers on the apprehension of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. The soldier circumvented platform restrictions using VPN technology.
The prosecution demonstrates how readily American users can bypass the existing prohibition. It simultaneously highlighted oversight deficiencies on the platform.
Polymarket has processed hundreds of millions in contracts connected to military conflicts in Ukraine, Israel, and Iran. Under American regulatory frameworks, numerous such contracts would encounter stringent restrictions. CFTC regulations forbid US-licensed exchanges from offering contracts associated with armed conflict, terrorism, or political assassination.
The prediction market sector has attracted political scrutiny. Donald Trump Jr. maintains advisory positions with both Polymarket and Kalshi. Trump Media and Technology Group has signaled intentions to develop a competing platform.
The CFTC maintains its assertion of federal jurisdiction over prediction markets through ongoing litigation, while multiple state governments contend these products fall under gambling regulatory authority.
