Key Highlights
- The BETS OFF Act, introduced by Senator Chris Murphy and Rep. Greg Casar, seeks to prohibit wagering on federal decisions, military operations, and terrorism-related events
- Approximately 150 Polymarket user accounts made suspicious wagers ahead of US military action against Iran, with profits reaching $500,000 for a single bettor
- Platform operators would face criminal prosecution, and payment processors would be blocked from servicing prohibited markets
- Congressional members drew attention to the Trump family’s investments in Polymarket and Kalshi, including plans for a Trump-labeled prediction platform
- Recent polling data indicates 59% of American voters reject betting on government operations, while 82% express alarm over terrorism-focused markets
A bipartisan group of US legislators has unveiled legislation designed to criminalize wagering on federal government operations, military engagements, and other critical national events. The proposed law specifically addresses prediction market services such as Kalshi and Polymarket.
The proposed legislation bears the name Banning Event Trading on Sensitive Operations and Federal Functions Act, abbreviated as the BETS OFF Act. Connecticut Senator Chris Murphy and Texas Representative Greg Casar serve as the primary sponsors.
Additional congressional members backing the measure include Colorado Senator John Hickenlooper alongside Representatives Yassamin Ansari, Gabe Amo, and Rashida Tlaib.
During Tuesday’s press briefing, Murphy characterized prediction markets as “fundamentally corrupt markets rife with insider trading.” The proposed law would modify current gambling statutes to prevent financial institutions from processing transactions for prohibited services.
US citizens who facilitate or manage these betting platforms would face criminal prosecution. Companies operating prediction markets have responded by asserting their services function as analytical forecasting instruments subject to federal derivatives regulation.
Questionable Trading Patterns Preceding Iranian Military Operations
Legislators highlighted what they characterized as irregular wagering behavior on Polymarket immediately before US military engagement with Iran. According to Casar, roughly 150 user accounts placed wagers one day prior to the strikes, betting that military action would commence within 24 hours.
Among these accounts, 109 generated profits exceeding $10,000. Sixteen users earned more than $100,000, while a single individual accumulated nearly $500,000 in winnings.
Murphy noted that the majority of these accounts were established on the identical day the wagers were executed. He contended this pattern indicates individuals possessing confidential information about the impending attack likely profited financially.
Legislators additionally referenced comparable betting behavior observed before a US military operation in Venezuela. Casar expressed concern that military personnel risk their lives while others exploit advance knowledge for financial gain.
Presidential Family Investments and Political Opposition
Beyond potential insider trading violations, Murphy contended that prediction markets establish problematic incentives for federal officials. He suggested presidential advisors might base policy recommendations on their financial positions rather than national security considerations.
The legislation would additionally encompass private sector outcomes where specific individuals control or possess foreknowledge of results. Examples include wagers on particular words politicians might use or Super Bowl halftime show performer selections.
Both legislators expressed alarm regarding the Trump family’s financial involvement with prediction market enterprises. Casar observed that Donald Trump Jr. maintains an investment stake in Polymarket while serving as a compensated consultant to Kalshi.
Trump Jr. is simultaneously developing a Trump-affiliated prediction market platform named Truth Predict. Casar argued the present administration would not regulate such activities given their financial interest.
Murphy identified a broader pattern established by White House administration. He suggested the president signals to government employees that they should capitalize financially on their positions of influence.
When questioned about Republican legislative support, Casar recognized the challenge. He indicated private discussions with certain Republican colleagues revealed understanding of potential risks while acknowledging political obstacles.
Murphy explained the BETS OFF Act represents one among multiple congressional initiatives addressing prediction markets. Additional proposed legislation focuses on sports gambling and election-related betting platforms.
Data from Data for Progress polling reveals 59% of voters reject wagering on government operations. Opposition crosses party lines with 60% of Democrats, 61% of Independents, and 57% of Republicans opposing such markets.
Support for prohibiting elected officials from participating in prediction markets reaches 67%. Voter concern peaks regarding terrorism-related markets at 82% and political assassination markets at 78%.
